Friday, October 30, 2009

Was Honduras Agreement a Larger Plan?

I have been thinking about this since last night.  Many things about this agreement do not make sense to me. 

First why Zelaya ever agreed to no amnesty is beyond comprehension.  I still have yet to understand this one.

Second, Zelaya may be counting on buying off Congress.  However, I doubt that Micheletti would have went in and agreed to this without knowing where Congress is going to go with this. 

What I think is this is one of those backroom agreements where Congress let Zelaya think he had a chance to get restituted to power so that he would sign the agreement.  However, I think the bigger picture is Congress, the presidential candidates, and Micheletti all needed the International community to recognize the elections and to restore assistance to the country as well as restore the embassies abroad.  So they agreed to sign with the understanding behind closed doors that Zelaya will not be returned to power period.

Now they have him stuck between a rock and a hard place.  They can tell him ´No way Jose´and he will have to accept it and the international community is going to accept it to.

What Now? Meeting of Comissions in 30 minutes

The two comissions will be meeting in thirty minutes to decide the calendar of events and a time frame. Congress has not been given a time limit as they are concidered a seperate organization and cannot be forced into delibration in a certain time frame.

Congress can decide this will wait until after elections or they can convene immediately.

Which ever way is decided both sides have agreed to support the decision.  This releases tremendous pressure on Congress and they are required to decide based on previous decisions. 

This tells me most likely a return will be based on the court trial.  In otherwords, he won´t return.  He is guilty...most of us know he is guilty as we watched his crimes unfold on live television. 

He has to face his crimes there is no amnesty.  So my question is how is he going to manage this? He will be arrested when he leaves the embassy of Brazil that is without doubt.  In fact, he basically signed agreement to this by agreement of no amnesty and no delaying of charges. 

I think perhaps he just was tired and was willing to sign almost anything to end this.  He seems to think that he will be returned immediately, but that isn´t what the agreement says.  I have to wonder how quietly he will go if Congress says no to restitution? Congress should say no to restitution...we are too close to the end and it is too close to take the chance.

Guayamuras Agreement has Been Signed

As of midnight the Guayamuras agreement has been signed.  Zelaya and Micheletti have agreed to the points in the agreement including the court and Congress deciding on his restitution. 

However, while both sides have agreed on this accord the resistance is not agreeing and they are already screaming foul.  Marvin Ponce has said that the Resistance will not accept this agreement and that they insist not only on the restitution of Zelaya, but the cancelation of elections and the invocation of a Constitutional Assembly.  I don´t think he realizes that it isn´t his decision nor is it the decision of the resistanace.  Now if they continue their nonsense put them in jail. 

What is not clear is if Zelaya will have to leave the Brazilian embassy and face the court.  Amnesty has already been ruled out with this agreement.  So that is the question we will have to wait for.

Also, the US has reversed all previous decisions and are going to immediately reactivate the consulates in the US and accept Micheletti´s designates. The aid packages will be restored, elections will be observed by the US and all visas will be restored.

Both sides have agreed to respect the decision of Congress regardless of what it is.

Elections will be held in one month.  Is this a victory? Not hardly.  Will the signing of the agreement end the crisis? Not likely from the cries of foul by the resistance.
The elections will end the crisis along with long jail terms for any terrorist acts by the Resistance.