Saturday, December 05, 2009

75 Days in the Brazilian Embassy: Now What?

Zelaya has been in the Brazilian embassy for 75 days today after he snuck in on September 21 and found that he had to exile in the Brazilian embassy to avoid capture by the military.

Now the elections have passed and Pepe Lobo is the next president and he will take office on January 27, 2010 as required by the Honduran Constitution.  The world is recognizing the electoral process and one by one turning their backs on Zelaya.  The next country is Brazil...they are considering recognizing the election results since the elections were clearly fair and transparent.  If they recognize the elections what happens to Zelaya? How much longer can he continue inside that embassy prison cell he created for himself?  He has been abandoned by everyone but his family and Rasel Tomé.

He was abandoned by Tamayo for what was rumored to be domestic violence that occurred between Zelaya and his wife Xiomara.  Tamayo apparently got in the middle to stop him from hurting her and an argument broke out.  Tamayo used the excuse that his sister needed him in El Salvador, but he hasn´t been to El Salvador in 26 years until now...so it is highly unlikely that his story was true...apparently Zelaya beat Xiomara so badly she had to be hospitalized and it was more than Tamayo could deal with so he left the embassy and faced deportation instead. 

Zelaya clearly is suffering from mental problems that probably have been compounded by the situation he has found himself in.  I am sure he never dreamed that the embassy would become his prison.  He miscalculated how much following he had and it was too late when he realized that the Resistance could not carry him back to the presidency and that the Civil War he dreamed about had not occurred.

Now that elections have passed even the Resistance has recognized that Lobo will be the president come January and they accept the results of the elections...their goal they say is the Constitutional Assembly...of course that will not happen, but how bad has it really gotten when his following abandoned him outright and were clear they no longer were calling for Zelaya´s restitution since his term would end on January 27 anyway.  People are starting to come to their senses now.

So what is this man going to do? He cannot continue in the embassy.  The sensible thing would be to ask for asylum and get a way out of the country without being arrested or turn himself in and face the music that awaits him.  The military feels so safe about the situation that they retired barricades that had been at the embassy for over 2 months.  They are still guarding the embassy to arrest him if he comes out, but there is no danger of the embassy coming under siege now.

The real question is if Brazil recognizes Lobo, will they make Zelaya make a choice on what he is going to do? His days are numbered regardless.  The Brazilians need their embassy and he has got to decide what his destiny is....I suspect that the Zelaya property in Catacamas will soon have a for sale sign hanging on the gate...and Zelaya will be an asylee in another country...I cannot picture him facing the music.

The real thing to celebrate is that elections were so peaceful and that the crisis is all but ended.  No one will stop holding their breath though until he is out of the embassy and Lobo is sworn in as president of Honduras. 

Now the doors are open to the future for Honduras and what Hondurans do with it will depend on them..this can easily make Honduras a first world country even as small as they are...will they jump at the chance or remain on the sidelines is the real question. 

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