Friday, October 30, 2009

Was Honduras Agreement a Larger Plan?

I have been thinking about this since last night.  Many things about this agreement do not make sense to me. 

First why Zelaya ever agreed to no amnesty is beyond comprehension.  I still have yet to understand this one.

Second, Zelaya may be counting on buying off Congress.  However, I doubt that Micheletti would have went in and agreed to this without knowing where Congress is going to go with this. 

What I think is this is one of those backroom agreements where Congress let Zelaya think he had a chance to get restituted to power so that he would sign the agreement.  However, I think the bigger picture is Congress, the presidential candidates, and Micheletti all needed the International community to recognize the elections and to restore assistance to the country as well as restore the embassies abroad.  So they agreed to sign with the understanding behind closed doors that Zelaya will not be returned to power period.

Now they have him stuck between a rock and a hard place.  They can tell him ´No way Jose´and he will have to accept it and the international community is going to accept it to.

11 comments:

Billie said...

I've been trying to make sense of this agreement too. I've wondered if somehow this is the USA's way out of a really stupid situation that they got themselves into in supporting Zelaya.

K said...

I'm thinking 3 sides believe it gets them enough, but I doubt Mel has compromised at all in his mind.
The Honduras side is trying to defend from a full assault by an unseemly USA administration while leaving Zelaya constrained in his desire to prevent election of a different president.
The USA administration is very motivated to advance leftist fondness for Lat Am marxist thugs since they can't accomplish any real policies to satisfy their base. "Q:Why Honduras?" "A:Because they can". (bullies)
I expect that the two dishonest parties, the Mel side and the US, both envision doing things that are not in the agreement. We will see what tricks they have to pull in the weeks ahead.
If Mel gets to where he wants (no new president), it would make the US Administration look like political fools.
I believe Mel wants no amnesty because Mel is planning to have a whole lot of people arrested as quite convenient way to consolidate power. Mel doesn't actually need a new constitution for now if there is nobody to stop him from trampling on it.
I think Micheletti intentionally stalled the negotiation process until the armed forces switched to the Electoral Tribunal. This will make it more difficult for Mel.

LaGringaSPS said...

Yes, it will certainly make it more difficult if he is not in control of elections or the Armed forces. However, I am not quite sure he was in control of them to begin with..he started his move left and they abandoned him.
Honduras has Liberals and Nationalists and they are both center parties(not really left or right) and then they have three third parties that never have taken control...the UD is one of them and they are the only leftist party. Honduras is probably one of the most anti communist countries in the world.

Anonymous said...

K:

I agree with your observations.

The Americans are stupid if they think that any agreement means anything to Zelaya. Should the Congress not reinstate him, he will urge his base of communists and riff-raff (chusma) to try for a revolution, call for armed help from Castro's errand boys, who now are emboldened to defy the smiling communist in the White House.

Zelaya has much more support among the plebeian class than most Americans realize. His main problem is to get them armed and to bring foreign forces.

He can do a lot of harm reinstated and not reinstated.

The main hope is that the adults and professionals in the U. S. Government would finally prevail and have him abandoned with a kick, should he not go quietly if not reinstated.

Tambopaxi said...

I believe that Micheletti and his allies signed the agreement because they think that 1) they've thwarted Zelaya's intent to prolong his tenure; and 2) that they're comfortable that a new, duly elected Government of Honduras will be sworn in on January 27, 2010.

In a quick reading of the Guaymuras Agreement, I note a couple of things:

1) For some reason, the short calendar of events in the Agreement does not mention the date of the elections. I presume that the signatories all acknowledge that the elections will happen later in November as planned..

2) Congreso Nacional has until November 5 to determine when, and in what form, a reconstituted government will be installed. It does not guarantee that Zelaya will come back to power, as was agreed, so we'll see what happens. The most interesting situation could arise if the Congreso says no to Zelaya's reinstatement (I've seen LG's projections on Congressional vote on Zelaya's return, btw).

Finally, it'll be interesting to see what kinds of pressures are brought to bear on Members of Congress to vote one way or the other.

I notice the plea to Hondurans to abstain from violence during the elections (and any time, for that matter). Well, let's keep our fingers crossed.

I, for one, don't trust Zelaya and his allies and I fear that they will attempt to disrupt the reconciliation process and/or the election process itself. These are unprincipled people backed by other unprincipled people (the Governments of Nicaragua and Venezuela in particular). Since the Guaymuras agreement ratifies the core goal of Micheletti y cia. y imposibilita el meta eje de Zelaya y sus adherentes (sorry, can't think of concise English way to say this), I can't believe that Zelaya, Chavez or others of that ilk are ultimately going to comply with Accord. Hope I'm wrong; it would be much nicer and quieter for Honduras if all parties were to comply....

LaGringaSPS said...

Tambopaxi, your English is amazing for a second language speaker!
I agree I cannot see Zelaya or Chavez going quietly. My husband has long said those Venezuelan escorts have orders to kill him if he doesn´t follow Chavez´orders. I think perhaps this is true...so perhaps they got him to sign by guaranteeing him enough protection to keep him from being killed by Chavez in the process...losing the presidency is better than losing your life. Chavez molded Zelaya from just being incompentent into a tyrant, liar and thief. However, Honduras is very important to Chavez because of drug trafficking and his larger plan of making war with the US. He has to have a solid block because one country directly in the center of Latin America with 8 million rebels does not do well for his plans.

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