Saturday, October 24, 2009

Things are Getting Sticky for Zelaya: The Clock is Ticking

Here we are just 36 days till elections and the clock keeps ticking.  In an article today from both El Heraldo and La Prensa the OAS apparently recognizes that the Honduran people by majority want a 3rd party alternative like Micheletti has suggested.  He said the poll also reveals that the people want a peaceful solution to the crisis that is made by Hondurans.

John Beihl revealed that he was headed to Washington DC for consultations to figure out how they can better assist with the crisis.  He also stated that he does not have a set date to return to Honduras. 

Beihl also stated that while the commissions had concluded the dialogue as a failure that he concidered this a break and a time for reflexion on the issue. 

He indicated that polls say that the Honduran population wants a pacific solution as soon as possible and that they think both sides need to be more flexible.  He said the poll also shows that Hondurans prefer the option of a third party where Zelaya and Micheletti resign and a third person and a reconciliatory and transitional government take control.  The population believes this should be one of the solutions. 

¨This is a Honduran agreement.  The International community has resolved that whatever agreement the Honduran people come to it will be respected.¨

However, this type of solution was already presented to Zelaya several times and he has rejected it every time and insisted on his restitution to the presidency.  Clearly now there is a majority population that does not want this but wants a pacific solution that involves both of them resigning and a third party taking control of the presidency to conclude the period of this presidency. 

I will not deny that I like Micheletti and I think he has taken a stand that must have been extremely difficult and that he has done remarkably well considering what he has had going on around him.  It will make me sad to see him resign as I think he has done a fantastic job even though I would have never opined that way before this entire mess.  I also think that the option presented where both resign and a third party take control is the best solution.

In the end if a third party takes control it solves a lot of things.  It relieves fears of the population and Congress that he will disolve the form of government and throw out the constitution as well as void the election process.  It also cedes to the other side in that Micheletti doesn´t remain in power either since this seems to be a point of contention with them.  Both Micheletti and Zelaya nixed the amnesty options so it would be incredibly difficult for Zelaya to be returned to power with serious felony charges over his head and he clearly needs to sort this out posthaste.  So as a result and the short time it is not plausable that he request a return to power before he solves his legal issues.  It also will not cause a pacific option but may destabilize the situation even more.  The other side will be pacified because Zelaya would have to resign thus removing their argument about how he was removed and their calls for insurrection.  It also would put an end to the illegal call for a Constitutional Assembly and restore to a certain degree the fracture in the community. 

Jimmy Carter has already presented this as a very good option.  The OAS seems to be concidering this may be the option and is clearly the desire of Hondurans.

My question is this was presented during the San Jose Accords..what took them so long to see things the way the people of Honduras see it?  What took them so long to understand that the democratic form of government did not hinge on Zelaya being president, but on the seperation of the powers in government and the respect for the institutions as well as the respect for the will of the people and for the respect for the Constitution of the Republic?

The factors are that slowly the facts that were undeniable have emerged and those facts made it hard to still call everything that occurred the compact word ´coup´.  Most admitted it wasn´t so easily defined this way.  While many grumbled about how things were handled they admitted it also was not a military coup per se.  They also admitted that Zelaya violated the law. 

While the International community was quite smug in the beginning about the power they held over Honduras and their ability to crush them and make them scream uncle they sorely estimated the resolve of this small country to defend the constitution and what they perceived as a person who was trying to throw out their constitution. 
Eventually as time passed they could not believe that Honduras was not going to bow to them even if they made threats.  So the international community regrouped and finally discussed talking with the government and negotiating the situation. This however, was destined to fail before it started because there were conditions set on the negotiations that required Zelaya return to power.  This set the talks up for failure before they began.
Any talks from the very beginning and options about the solution should have came straight from the Honduran community.

Let us hope that the International community also takes the time to reflect during this break and realize that any solution to peace has to come from within the community that is directly affected. 


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